Newsweek is reporting that recent polling in several competitive races has narrowed, suggesting an anti-incumbent streak in the electorate ahead of November's midterm elections. In its "The 1600" newsletter, it said New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, leads Republican Bruce Blakeman by just 4 points, down from a 10-point advantage earlier in the year.
It said Republican Christine Drazen leads Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek by 2 points in Oregon, and Republican Ron Shutz leads Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison by 2 points in Minnesota. Newsweek said Ellison had led by 8 points just a month earlier. In Minnesota's Senate race, it said Republican Michele Tafoya is tied with Democrat Peggy Flanagan, who had led by 5 points last month.
Newsweek said the numbers carry caveats, noting that a single poll does not make a story, that polls tend to tighten after Labor Day, and that some surveys are internal polls that warrant extra skepticism. It said the trend nonetheless indicates a gathering anti-incumbent attitude that complicates races for Democrats tied to those currently in power.
Newsweek also reported that President Donald Trump traveled to North Carolina to campaign for Republican Senate candidate Mike Whatley, repeating his appeal for Republican voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot just one more time." It said the White House is counting on that message as a turnout strategy in the final weeks, though it described Whatley as unlikely to win against Democrat Roy Cooper.
Citing an analysis in The Washington Sun, Newsweek said Democratic voter turnout in competitive Senate primaries rose by a median of 45 percent across 30 states compared with the previous comparable race. It said Democratic enthusiasm appears established, while Republicans may rely on a large cash advantage to target selected races.
Newsweek said the cycle is unusually difficult to forecast, citing voter views of the administration, economic sentiment despite a record-low poverty rate, and rising energy prices amid a Middle East crisis. It said no incumbent, of either party, faces an easy campaign.
The newsletter also noted a bonus podcast episode featuring former presidential candidate Andrew Yang, who discussed automation, artificial intelligence and the prospects of young men in the workforce.