TIME is reporting that Republican sentiment is shifting from nervous to fatalistic with less than six weeks until Election Day, as a pileup of bad news convinces many in the party they are heading toward an electoral disaster. It said the warning signs are arriving from across the map, much of it from red states where President Trump won comfortably two years ago.
TIME said outside groups backing the GOP are now spending millions on Senate races in once-safe territories including Nebraska and Kansas, while South Carolina, Mississippi, South Dakota and Arkansas are drawing renewed attention amid fears of a historically massive blue wave.
At a closed-door briefing Wednesday with his caucus, Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina delivered a particularly grim message that 2026 will not look anything like 2024, TIME reported. As leader of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Scott is tasked with deciding how to distribute a sizable war chest in the final weeks of the midterms. According to a person who listened to the briefing, Scott urged incumbent senators to run like they were behind so the NRSC could focus on a record number of toss-up races. TIME said Scott told them the committee's priority was saving GOP-held seats in Texas, Iowa, Maine and Alaska, while still investing to flip Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire.
TIME also reported that Iowa Republicans received a starker warning a day earlier. Radio host Steve Deace, a Trump ally, told followers that Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that a plus-15 district is within the margin of error and a plus-10 district is underwater, and that the environment could be worse than 2006. TIME said Rep. Zach Nunn voted last week to curb Trump's war against Iran, and Rep. Ashley Hinson, the GOP nominee for an open Senate seat, is running ads touting work with Democrats rather than her Trump endorsement.
TIME reported similar scrambling in Texas, where a super PAC blessed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune is on track to spend more than $100 million boosting Ken Paxton's bid against James Talarico, with the total price tag for keeping the seat approaching $200 million on the GOP side alone. It said House Republicans have a massive $485 million in ad reservations between Aug. 1 and Election Day in districts Trump won, according to a Politico analysis.
TIME said even Speaker Mike Johnson has grown frustrated with Trump, appearing annoyed during a Sept. 13 appearance on NBC's Meet the Press as he was repeatedly asked about Trump's promise to send every American adult a $5,000 check if Republicans keep their majorities. It said Republicans have struggled to highlight bragging points including the lowest crime rate in 126 years, declining prescription drug costs and a massive tax cut, as gas prices, the war in Iran and Russia's war with Ukraine weigh on the ticket. One Republican strategist told TIME that Election Day cannot come quickly enough.