The Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast, issued on August 14, 2026, indicates low solar activity with a slight chance of M-class flares over the next three days. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled and are expected to range from quiet to active.
Solar activity remained low in the past 24 hours, with seven sunspot regions currently visible. The forecast predicts continued low solar activity through August 17, with a 15% chance each day for an M-class flare. X-class flares and proton events have a 1% probability daily.
Geomagnetic fields were quiet to unsettled, with solar wind speed peaking at 398 km/s. Electrons greater than 2 MeV reached 399 pfu. For the coming days, the geomagnetic field is anticipated to be quiet to active on August 15, then quiet to unsettled on August 16, and quiet on August 17. Middle latitudes face a 35% chance of active conditions on August 15, while high latitudes have a 40% chance of minor to severe storms.