MIT Technology Review is reporting that heat pump sales continue to surge in the United States, even after key federal tax credits expired at the end of 2025. The publication said these electric appliances, known for their efficiency in both heating and cooling, have seen sales double over the past 15 years and outpaced natural-gas furnaces by 32% during the first quarter of 2026.
It noted that the Trump administration slashed tax credits for heat pumps, which offered up to $2,000, along with other incentives from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, effective Jan. 1, 2026. This contrasts with the electric vehicle market, where sales significantly dropped after similar tax credits ended in September 2025.
However, an analysis by energy economist Lucas Davis, a UC Berkeley professor, indicates that heat pump sales have actually increased in the first few months of 2026. Data from the Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute shows a gradual rise in shipments since January, following a stronger-than-usual seasonal trend. Davis suggests this indicates the U.S. market for heat pumps is robust enough not to depend on tax credits. The Review highlighted that heat pumps have outsold gas furnaces in the U.S. for the last four years and are seeing strong adoption globally, including in China and Germany, playing a significant role in decarbonizing buildings.
Full Article: Why heat pumps are still so hot in the US