NOAA's latest Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report forecasts moderate solar activity with a slight chance of an X-class flare on July 24, 2026, following a period of low solar activity. The geomagnetic field, which has been at quiet to minor storm levels, is expected to remain at similar levels on day one before settling to quiet or unsettled conditions.
Currently, five sunspot regions are observed on the solar disk. The forecast indicates a 55% chance for M-class flares on July 24, decreasing to 45% on July 25 and 26. There is a 10% chance for an X-class flare on July 24, dropping to 5% for the subsequent two days.
Geomagnetic activity over the past 24 hours saw solar wind speeds peak at 749 km/s and total IMF reach 11 nT. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit peaked at 469 pfu. Middle latitudes have a 30% chance of minor storms on July 24, while high latitudes face a 60% chance of major-severe storms on the same day.