The Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report forecasts active to major geomagnetic storm levels for May 15, with unsettled to minor storm conditions expected on May 16 and 17. Solar activity remains low, though there is a 40% chance of M-class flares over the next three days.
Currently, four sunspot regions are visible on the solar disk. The observed solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours. The forecast indicates a consistent 40% probability for M-class flares through May 17, with a 5% chance for X-class flares and proton events.
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled, with solar wind speed peaking at 496 km/s. The forecast predicts significant geomagnetic disturbances, particularly for high latitudes, where major-severe storm probabilities reach 75% on May 15, decreasing to 65% on May 16 and 17. Middle latitudes also face a 20% chance of major-severe storms on May 15.