The latest Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report forecasts a period of low solar activity with a chance for M-class flares, while predicting geomagnetic field levels could escalate to major storm conditions by May 15. The report, issued on May 13, 2026, details current observations and a three-day outlook.
Currently, four sunspot regions are observed on the solar disk, and solar activity has remained low over the past 24 hours. However, there is a 40% probability of M-class flares occurring on May 14, 15, and 16, with a 5% chance for X-class flares and proton events during the same period.
Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled. The forecast indicates a significant increase, with quiet to active levels expected on May 14, escalating to active to major storm levels on May 15. By May 16, conditions are predicted to settle slightly to unsettled to minor storm levels. High latitudes face a 75% chance of major-severe storm on May 15.