The Joint USAF and NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report issued on May 4, 2026, indicates that recent moderate solar activity will transition to low levels with a continued chance of M-class flares over the coming days.
Over the past 24 hours, solar activity has remained at moderate levels, with nine numbered sunspot regions currently visible on the solar disk. During this period, the geomagnetic field experienced conditions ranging from quiet to major storm levels. Solar wind speeds reached a peak of 469 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field reached 10 nT, and high-energy electrons peaked at 723 pfu.
Looking ahead, forecasters expect solar activity to be low, though there remains a consistent probability for M-class flares from May 5 through May 7. The geomagnetic field is predicted to be at quiet to active levels on May 5 and May 7, and quiet to unsettled on May 6. High latitudes face the greatest risk of major to severe geomagnetic storms, with a 50 percent probability on May 5.
The report provided the following event probabilities for the forecast period:
| Event | 05 May | 06 May | 07 May |
|---|---|---|---|
| Class M | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Class X | 05 | 05 | 05 |
| Proton | 05 | 01 | 01 |