Solar Activity Stays Low as NOAA Forecasts Slight Chance of M-Class Flare

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours, with seven numbered sunspot regions currently on the disk, according to the Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast issued at 2200Z on 26 September 2026.

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (27 September, 28 September), and is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on day three (29 September). Event probabilities for 27-29 September put Class M at 10/10/05, Class X at 01/01/01 and proton events at 01/01/01, with PCAF at green.

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 25/2333Z, total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/1235Z, and the maximum southward component of Bz reached 5 nT at 26/0419Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit peaked at 1259 pfu.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 September) and quiet levels on days two and three (28 September, 29 September). Predicted Afr/Ap values are 010/010, 006/005 and 005/005.

The Penticton 10.7 cm flux was observed at 101 on 26 September, with predictions of 095/095/095 for 27-29 September against a 90-day mean of 122.