L.A. Times is reporting that Texas is emerging as a surprising battleground in the upcoming midterm elections, a stark contrast to California's solidified Democratic stronghold. For over three decades, the two states have drifted politically in opposite directions, with California becoming reliably Democratic and Texas a Republican fortress. The newspaper said that as the midterm election enters its final sprint toward Nov. 3, Texas features two competitive contests for governor and U.S. Senate. This is unlike California, where Democrat Xavier Becerra is expected to win the governorship and Adam Schiff secured his Senate seat in 2024.
The L.A. Times noted that the fight for Texas’ open Senate seat is rated a toss-up by election handicappers. Democrat state Rep. James Talarico is challenging Republican Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton, whose history of scandal is a significant factor in the race. Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in a GOP primary with President Trump’s support, leaving some Republican ill will.
In the gubernatorial race, Republican Greg Abbott is seeking an unprecedented fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. J. Miles Coleman, who analyzes elections at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, called Abbott’s bid “a big ask of voters.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently shifted the gubernatorial race from “Safe Republican” to “likely Republican.”
The L.A. Times said that while Texas often sees itself as independent, it is not immune to broader trends. Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas in Austin, attributed the state’s competitiveness to "the degree of wind in Democratic sails." Democratic strategist James Aldrete expressed cautious optimism, noting that while hopes have often crashed in the past, "beautiful native wildlife that grows in the desert... is blooming right now."