PolitiFact is reporting that President Donald Trump has continued to tout the United States' war against Iran as a success, despite a crumbling ceasefire, new U.S. attacks, and expert skepticism. Trump stated on July 23 and July 29 that the U.S. was doing "extremely well" and would "finish off Iran pretty soon."
The war, which began Feb. 28, has cost at least $37.5 billion in direct military expenditures through mid-July, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers. It has also resulted in the deaths of 18 service members and 624 wounded by late July. While the U.S. has degraded Iran’s conventional military assets, Iran has effectively used "asymmetric warfare," including inexpensive drones, to leverage its military power.
PolitiFact said key U.S. goals, such as the obliteration of Iran’s nuclear program and genuine regime change, remain elusive. Iran has also asserted control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Foreign policy experts, including Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, are skeptical of Trump’s assessment, with Miller calling it a "major strategic defeat by the administration’s own metrics" if the war ended today. Barbara Slavin, a Stimson Center fellow, said Iranians have "consistently out-strategized Trump."
Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow at the University of South Florida, noted that while Iran’s military facilities have been damaged and senior personnel lost, Iran maintains significant capabilities, launching missiles and drones from its territory. Preventing such attacks would require a substantial U.S. ground force inside Iran, which would be a major escalation. Nuclear policy specialists, including Daryl G. Kimball of the Arms Control Association, said the war has damaged but not destroyed Iran's nuclear program and has delayed the return of international inspectors.
Separately, PolitiFact reported that Trump blamed Minnesota for a cyberattack on water plants, but a federal agency had warned days earlier that Iran could launch such an attack. The FBI also said at least seven states were affected, not solely Minnesota.