USAF/NOAA Forecasts M-Class Flare Potential Amidst Low Solar Activity

Solar activity remains low, but forecasters predict a chance of M-class flares and unsettled to minor geomagnetic storms over the next three days, according to a joint report from the USAF and NOAA.

The latest Solar Geophysical Activity Report, issued on May 15, 2026, noted three sunspot regions on the solar disk. The geomagnetic field experienced quiet to minor storm levels in the past 24 hours, with solar wind speed peaking at 712 km/s and electron levels reaching 340 pfu.

Looking ahead, the geomagnetic field is expected to maintain unsettled to minor storm levels on May 16 and 17, before settling to quiet to unsettled levels on May 18. Probabilities for M-class flares are 40% for May 16, decreasing to 25% by May 18.