China's commercial space sector has expanded so rapidly that it can now produce upwards of 5,000 satellites a year across 17 major facilities, up from just a few hundred three years ago, according to a new CSIS report.
The report, "Blurred Orbits: Inside China's Commercial Space Expansion," was written by Kari A. Bingen, Aidan Power-Riggs, and Chantal Li. CSIS scholars said the growth of China's commercial space sector and the industrial base supporting it is "stunning in both scale and speed," and that Beijing has clear ambitions to be a global space power.
According to the report, the United States could soon find itself outpaced in sheer industrial capacity and output.
The findings appeared in the July 2026 edition of the DSD Brief, the monthly newsletter of the CSIS Defense and Security Department, which also detailed a range of other analysis by its scholars.
New CSIS data from Dr. Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe found that Russia has suffered the most casualties of any major power in any war since World War II — 1.4 million casualties and as many as 450,000 dead — yet has little to show for it. Its offensives have advanced at a slower pace than most offensive campaigns over the last century, its territorial footprint actually shrank this spring, and Ukraine is now taking the war deep into Russia with an increasingly successful strike campaign.
In a separate brief, Dr. Benjamin Jensen introduced the concept of a "capacity coefficient" that alters deterrence calculations, noting that the United States uses more munitions than are replenished in stockpiles and that its adversaries are noticing.
The DSD team also hosted a wargame for members of the House Committee on Homeland Security and the House Select Committee on China, examining AI-enabled cyber threats to U.S. critical infrastructure and using an AI-agent to play "red," or in this case, Beijing. Dr. Seth G. Jones testified before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence on the next generation of threats 25 years after 9/11.
Other work included a report by Dr. Jerry McGinn and A.J. Dilts measuring the Pentagon's progress toward a "wartime footing," which found the industrial base has made significant progress, with thousands of new firms entering the market and surges in munitions, foreign military sales, and rare earths investment.
"Yet a wartime footing must be continuously built and sustained through consistent demand signals, resilient supplier networks, effective government-industry coordination, and strong allied collaboration," the report said.