A joint report by the USAF and NOAA forecasts a period of unsettled to major geomagnetic storm levels for August 2, 2026, with a chance of M-class solar flares over the next three days.
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours, with six numbered sunspot regions currently on the disk. However, the forecast indicates a 30% probability of M-class flares daily from August 2 to August 4.
The geomagnetic field, which was quiet over the past 24 hours, is expected to escalate significantly. Major storm levels are predicted for August 2, followed by quiet to active levels on August 3, and returning to quiet levels on August 4. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu on August 1.
Middle latitudes face a 35% chance of a minor storm and a 15% chance of a major-severe storm on August 2. High latitudes have a 50% probability of a major-severe storm on the same day.