For decades, Canada has held the position as the number one client for U.S. exports. However, recent trade figures indicate this long-standing trend is changing, with Mexico vying for and potentially securing the top spot. In 2024, Canada purchased approximately $440 billion US worth of American goods and services, according to the U.S. Trade Representative. While Mexico has historically exported more of its own products to the U.S. than Canada, the gap in which country buys more from the U.S. has narrowed significantly.
Throughout August, September, and October of last year, Mexico and Canada traded the lead for U.S. export destinations. Mexico reclaimed the top position in November. As of the last 11 months, U.S. exports to both Canada and Mexico have been remarkably close, totaling around $308 billion each, according to RBC's assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen. However, the comparison varies when looking at specific U.S. states. Through November 2025, Canada remained the top export destination for 26 states, down from 32 in the previous year, while Mexico was the leading destination for eight states.
The shift is partly attributed to decreased Canadian imports. Factors such as American liquor sales bans in several Canadian provinces and a quirk in trade data where travel to the U.S. is counted as an export service have influenced the figures. Additionally, Canadian consumers and companies have increased their purchases of domestic products, and overall imports have remained subdued since tariffs were implemented, leading to a sharp decline in both Canadian imports and exports in 2025. While Canadian exports have shown some signs of rebound, partly due to a surge in gold prices, overall imports remain low.
Thursday's release of the final 2025 trade data is expected to provide a clearer picture, with the possibility that Mexico will officially displace Canada as the primary destination for U.S. exports. This development comes as trade numbers in both Canada and the U.S. are set to be released, alongside Canadian inflation figures and U.S. GDP numbers, which are expected to show continued economic strength in the United States.