The latest round of negotiations concerning Iran's nuclear program concluded on Thursday without an agreement, leaving both the United States and Iran significantly distant on critical issues. The U.S. has intensified pressure by presenting stringent demands and deploying additional jets and warships to the region.
Vice President JD Vance stated on Thursday that while President Donald Trump is considering military strikes against Iran, he believes there is "no chance" such actions would lead to a prolonged war for the United States. However, a report from three sources familiar with U.S. intelligence suggests that President Trump's assertion about Iran possessing a missile capable of reaching the U.S. is not supported by intelligence findings, casting doubt on the rationale for a potential attack.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the country's negotiation style as akin to bazaar bartering, requiring "patience and great time." He also indicated on social media that progress was made during Omani-mediated talks with the U.S. in Geneva. An editorial in The Jerusalem Post suggested that Iran is not negotiating towards a deal but rather "around a deal," aiming to extend talks indefinitely unless faced with clear consequences. The editorial emphasized that Iran's engagement is tactical and should be met with clarity on potential repercussions.
Benjamin Jensen noted that Iran's response to a U.S. attack would be a rational process, influenced by factors such as fear and honor. He suggested that if the U.S. response is larger than anticipated, potentially due to fears of Iranian missile attacks or limitations on naval options, Iran might adopt risk-acceptant behavior.
Alex Vatanka commented that from Washington's perspective, visibility matters in its dealings with Iran. He stated that if Russia's support for Iran remains diplomatic, U.S. policymakers can calibrate pressure without fearing direct confrontation with Moscow. The absence of alliance commitments reduces the risk of bloc polarization, even with heightened rhetoric. The Islamic Republic faces a choice of how to define realism in a world where partners are pragmatic rather than protective.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon is assembling its largest force of U.S. warships and aircraft in the Middle East in decades, including two aircraft carrier strike groups, as President Donald Trump warns of possible military action against Iran if nuclear program talks collapse. Admiral Brad Cooper, chief of U.S. Central Command, briefed President Trump on potential military options in Iran.