NPR Politics is reporting that one month out from Election Day, the electoral landscape has shifted further in Democrats' favor, with the party now favored to win the House and the Senate within reach.
It said The Cook Political Report forecasts a five-to-15-seat net gain for Democrats, which would give them roughly 220 to 230 seats in January. A majority requires 218 seats. NPR said six Senate seats have moved in Democrats' direction since June, when the chamber was considered a longshot for the party.
NPR said the shift is driven largely by the national mood, noting that presidential job approval ratings and the generic congressional ballot are strong indicators of midterm outcomes. It said Trump has a 37% approval rating, according to an average of polls, tied for the lowest pre-midterm approval in the last half century. The only other president that low was George W. Bush in 2006, when Republicans lost both chambers amid the Iraq war.
NPR said history is unkind to the president's party in midterms, with the party in power usually losing about two dozen House seats and four Senate seats, and faring worse when approval is below 50%. It said this cycle differs from 2006 because redistricting has insulated Republicans, there are fewer competitive seats, most competitive races are in Trump-won districts, Republicans hold a campaign spending advantage, and the Democratic Party is unpopular. NPR said the party leading in polling has made gains in each of the last seven midterms.
Separately, NPR reported that the Supreme Court opens a new term Monday, with cases on religion, bans on semi-automatic weapons, climate change and immigration. It said Maine's Senate race is potentially pivotal, with voters in Aroostook County citing heating oil, gas and Canadian tariffs as concerns.
NPR also reported that the FBI says it is aggressively investigating a massive data breach of sensitive employment information, including whether hackers accessed third-party software or internal systems. It said the Pentagon made last-minute changes to absentee voting forms used by overseas U.S. citizens, including removing a checkbox to identify as having never lived in the United States.
NPR reported that both parties are courting Latino swing voters in Allentown, Pennsylvania, a majority-Latino city that is predominantly Puerto Rican and Dominican. It said Equis Research co-founder Stephanie Valencia told NPR that a third of Latinos do not see themselves as part of either party and vote based on personal economic concerns.