The latest Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report, issued on August 4, 2026, indicates low solar activity over the past 24 hours, with seven sunspot regions currently visible. Solar activity is expected to remain low for the next three days, though there is a slight chance for an M-class flare on August 5, 6, and 7.
Geomagnetic activity has ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed peaked at 464 km/s, and electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached 370 pfu. The geomagnetic field is predicted to be quiet on August 5 and 6, becoming quiet to unsettled on August 7.
Probabilities for M-class flares are 20% for August 5 and 6, and 15% for August 7. For middle latitudes, there's a 30% chance of active conditions and a 15% chance of a minor storm on August 7. High latitudes face a 50% chance of a major-severe storm on August 7, with a 25% chance of a minor storm.