A joint report from the USAF and NOAA, issued on May 11, 2026, forecasts low solar activity and quiet to active geomagnetic conditions for the upcoming three days. The report covers the period from May 12 to May 14.
Solar activity has remained at low levels over the past 24 hours, with five numbered sunspot regions currently visible. The forecast anticipates continued low solar activity, with a 45% chance for M-class flares daily. There is also a slight chance, 10%, for an X-class flare on May 12, decreasing to 5% on subsequent days.
The geomagnetic field has been quiet, with solar wind speed reaching a peak of 430 km/s. Looking ahead, the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on May 12 and 13, transitioning to quiet to unsettled levels on May 14. Additionally, there is a slight chance for protons greater than 10 MeV to cross the threshold on May 12.