Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours, with seven numbered sunspot regions currently on the disk, according to the Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2026.
Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep). Event probabilities for an M-class flare are 10 percent on each of the three days, while Class X and proton probabilities are 1 percent each. The PCAF level is green.
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 12/0150Z, total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/1947Z, and the maximum southward component of Bz reached 6 nT at 12/0553Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit peaked at 2662 pfu.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (13 Sep, 15 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day two (14 Sep). The Penticton 10.7 cm flux was observed at 109 on 12 Sep, with predictions of 105, 105 and 100 for 13-15 Sep, against a 90-day mean of 126.