NOAA and USAF report low solar activity with potential for M-class and slight X-class flares over the next three days, while geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet.
The latest Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report, issued August 23, 2026, indicates low solar activity with four sunspot regions currently visible. Forecasters anticipate continued low solar activity, with a 45% chance for M-class flares and a 10% chance for X-class flares daily from August 24-26.
The geomagnetic field has been quiet, with solar wind speed peaking at 486 km/s. Protons greater than 10 MeV reached 4 pfu. The forecast predicts quiet geomagnetic levels for the next three days, though there is a slight 10% chance of proton events crossing thresholds daily.
Middle latitudes have a 10% chance of active conditions and a 5% chance of minor storms. High latitudes face higher probabilities, with a 20% chance of active conditions and a 20% chance of minor storms on August 24 and 25, increasing to 20% for minor storms on August 26. Major-severe storms have a 15-20% chance at high latitudes.