Solar activity has been at very low levels over the past 24 hours, with two numbered sunspot regions currently on the disk, according to the Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2026.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct). Event probabilities for an M-class flare are 15 percent on each of the three days, while X-class and proton probabilities are 1 percent, and the PCAF is green.
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed peaked at 315 km/s, total IMF reached 7 nT, and the maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit peaked at 2547 pfu.
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (04 Oct). Predicted Afr/Ap values are 016/020, 012/015 and 016/020.
The Penticton 10.7 cm flux was observed at 092 on 01 Oct, with predictions of 092/092/090 for 02 Oct to 04 Oct, against a 90-day mean of 116.