Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours, with eight numbered sunspot regions currently on the disk, according to the Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2026.
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep). Event probabilities for a Class M flare are 20 percent on each of the three days, while Class X and proton probabilities are 1 percent each. The PCAF level is green.
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 337 km/s at 21/2239 UTC, total field reached 4 nT at 22/0552 UTC, and the maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/2248 UTC. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit peaked at 707 pfu.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (24 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (25 Sep).
The observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux was 118 on 22 Sep, with predictions of 120/120/122 for 23-25 Sep and a 90 day mean of 125. Observed Afr/Ap on 21 Sep was 002/003, estimated at 004/004 for 22 Sep, with predictions of 011/012, 020/025 and 014/018 for 23-25 Sep.