SPC Feb 9, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CST WED FEB 09 2011 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL SHIFT EWD SOME DURING DAY 2 TO ALONG AND E OF THE ROCKIES AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD ACROSS MO AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THESE TROUGHS WILL BECOME MORE IN PHASE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THESE PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NE-SW ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA AT THE START OF DAY 2...AND MOVE SWD THROUGH FL AND OFF THE S COAST BY THU EVENING. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON THU. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL ROBUSTNESS OF UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-700 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SRN/SERN FL...GENERALLY S OF A FMY-VRB LINE...WHERE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IS FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LIMITING CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...GREATEST CONVERGENCE AND TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OVER SERN FL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS REGION THU AFTERNOON INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE. IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE ROBUST IN THIS PART OF S FL...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /30-40 KT/ AND MLCAPE AROUND 700 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...A 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE DAY 2 UPDATE. ..PETERS.. 02/09/2011 Read more

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