Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 13/2024Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 13/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 13/1748Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (16 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jan 071 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 006/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 011/015-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/15 Major-severe storm 40/20/10