Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 10/2122Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Jan) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Jan 071 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 005/005-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/30/20 Minor Storm 01/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/30/30 Major-severe storm 10/45/30