Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 08/2051Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 08/1226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 08/1233Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Jan 070 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 008/010-006/006-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/10/10 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 35/20/20