Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (05 Jan, 06 Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 04/1550Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Jan, 06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Jan 070 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 070/070/069 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 006/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/20