Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

By Newsroom America Feeds at 31 Dec 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 30/2105Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 31/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 839 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Dec 071 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 018/025-014/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/20 Minor Storm 20/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/20 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 50/45/25


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