Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

By Newsroom America Feeds at 21 Dec 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 20/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3763 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Dec, 23 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (24 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Dec 076 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 30/30/15 Major-severe storm 30/25/10


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