Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 15/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 192 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Dec 071 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 070/072/072 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 010/012-019/026-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/40/35 Minor Storm 10/25/20 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 35/55/55