Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 14/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/1414Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/0738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 276 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (18 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Dec 072 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 072/072/074 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 006/005-010/012-019/026
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/40 Minor Storm 01/10/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 15/30/25 Major-severe storm 10/35/55