Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 13/2114Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/0046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/2343Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 248 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Dec, 16 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Dec 072 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/25 Minor Storm 01/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/30 Major-severe storm 10/10/35