Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 11/1725Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 11/1217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1405 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Dec, 13 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Dec 072 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 013/016-011/014-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/10 Minor Storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 35/35/15