Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 08/2141Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/2211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4184 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Dec 071 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 006/005-012/014-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/25 Minor Storm 01/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/25/30 Major-severe storm 10/35/35