Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (01 Dec) and expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 30/1042Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/0313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/0133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 164 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Nov 072 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 072/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/15/15