Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 28/0117Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 28/0057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/0031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 212 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (30 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Nov 072 Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 072/071/070 90 Day Mean 28 Nov 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 018/024-014/016-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/20 Minor Storm 20/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 55/45/25