Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 27/1404Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 27/1354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 602 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (29 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Nov 074 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 074/073/072 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 010/010-018/024-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/40/30 Minor Storm 10/20/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 35/55/45