Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 22/2203Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/1817Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4658 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Nov 072 Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 15/15/15