Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 21/2118Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1620Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2742 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Nov 073 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 016/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/15