SPC Nov 15, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 14 Nov 19:39

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States today. ...Discussion... No significant changes to 20z outlook are warranted. Have adjusted thunderstorm probabilities across southeast FL Peninsula to reflect convective bands likely holding near, or just offshore the rest of the night. While 00z sounding from MFL suggests updrafts could attain heights necessary for lightning, ongoing activity has struggled to do so. Low-level warm advection is expected to induce convection across the Mid-MS Valley during the overnight period. 00z sounding from SGF has yet to destabilize aloft though modest southwesterly flow at 850mb is beginning to increase across MO. With time instability should increase across this region and forecast soundings favor adequate buoyancy for elevated thunderstorms after midnight. A few lighting strikes are currently observed within pre-frontal convective band off the WA coast. Convective threat should increase overnight as profiles cool within post-frontal regime. Even so, lightning should remain sparse and limited to near-coastal regions. ..Darrow.. 11/15/2017 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html

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