Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 28/2149Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/1430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1705Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3103 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Oct 075 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 15/15/20 Major-severe storm 10/15/15