Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/1649Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/2148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1897 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Oct 076 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 006/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/20/15 Major-severe storm 05/10/10