Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 607 km/s at 26/0357Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/0103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/0848Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2154 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Oct, 28 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Oct 077 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 078/077/077 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 015/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 017/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 013/016-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor Storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 35/20/30