Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 641 km/s at 24/2012Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 24/1140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1017Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2102 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (25 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (27 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Oct 078 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 078/077/077 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 028/045-023/035-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/35 Minor Storm 35/25/15 Major-severe storm 20/15/05 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/15 Minor Storm 15/25/25 Major-severe storm 75/55/40