Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (24 Oct, 25 Oct) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 23/0425Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/0046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/0649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 518 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Oct), active to major storm levels on day two (25 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct Class M 05/05/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Oct 078 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 078/078/077 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 015/022-028/045-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/35 Minor Storm 25/40/25 Major-severe storm 05/20/15 B. High Latitudes Active 10/05/10 Minor Storm 20/15/25 Major-severe storm 65/75/55