SPC Oct 23, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 23 Oct 2017

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact eastern portions of southern New England Wednesday, accompanied by at least some risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Model output indicates increasing uncertainty concerning short wave developments within the larger-scale flow during this period. In general, though, the pattern appears likely to remain amplified, but initial large-scale upper troughing over the East may slowly begin to lose some amplitude and accelerate northeast across the Atlantic Seaboard. This is expected to occur as an upstream short wave trough begins to amplify southeastward across the central Canadian/U.S. border and northern Rockies. A cold front associated with the remnant Eastern troughing may be in the process of advancing into New England, east of much of the mid and southern Atlantic coast, and through the southern Florida Peninsula, by 12Z Wednesday. It is expected to advance east of the New England and southeast Florida coast by the end of the period. In its wake, generally dry and stable conditions will prevail across much of the nation. ...New England... Within a narrow plume of seasonably moist air ahead of the cold front, an environment characterized by weak boundary layer instability and strong lower/mid tropospheric wind fields (40-60+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer) may still support a risk for convection capable of producing potentially damaging wind gusts across eastern portions of southern New England. This could include the Boston/Providence area through midday, and the Cape Cod area through Wednesday afternoon. Destabilization to support an appreciable risk for severe convective gusts remains more unclear farther to the north, across coastal/Downeast Maine. ..Kerr.. 10/23/2017 Read more



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