Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 21/2219Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/0008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/2321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 255 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (24 Oct) and active to major storm levels on day three (25 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Oct 077 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 082/084/085 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 013/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/005-012/018-028/045
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/30 Minor Storm 01/10/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/15 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-severe storm 10/45/80