SPC Oct 22, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 21 Oct 2017

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...A LARGE PORTION OF OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK...EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...FROM PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening and into the overnight hours across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will all be possible, primarily across the southern Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley to Texas tonight... Steady advance of a surface cold front across the central U.S. is forecast tonight, eastward toward/across the upper and middle Mississippi Valley and southeast across the southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along the front at this time from northern Minnesota to western north Texas -- with the strongest storms -- including a few supercells -- indicated from central Oklahoma south-southwest to western north Texas. These stronger storms are ongoing within the region of greatest instability, with mixed-layer CAPE roughly 1500 to 2000 J/kg within this zone. With time, storm clustering/upscale growth toward a quasi-linear configuration along -- and just to the rear of -- the advancing front is expected, and thus threat will trend more toward damaging winds and some hail, as convection shifts east and southeast across the lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks/southern Plains. In the short term however, while convection maintains some local cellular characteristics in that central Oklahoma to north Texas zone, large hail and the potential for a couple of tornadoes will continue. ..Goss.. 10/22/2017 Read more



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