SPC MD 1726

By Newsroom America Feeds at 21 Oct 2017

MD 1726 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1726 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0541 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Areas affected...Northwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212241Z - 220015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with high-based storms west of the dryline. A severe thunderstorms watch issuance is unlikely in this corridor, but a watch issuance is much more probable farther east later this evening. DISCUSSION...High-based convection has developed between the west/east-oriented cold front and southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the South Plains and Low Rolling Plains of northwest TX. A 54 kt gust was recorded by the Sundown TX mesonet site at 2210Z. Very large surface temperature/dew point spreads will support a continued risk for isolated severe wind gusts. While MLCAPE is likely meager, strong speed shear within the cloud-bearing layer should foster small hail, possibly approaching quarter size. As the cold front further overtakes the dryline, increasing linear convective coverage is anticipated and this should necessitate watch issuance east of the dryline later this evening. ..Grams/Guyer.. 10/21/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 33960202 34160059 34440002 34359952 33309971 32590042 32510079 32440170 32620237 33100266 33770239 33960202 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1726.html

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